FT.com / World - SPD gains fail to allay doubts

FT.com / World - SPD gains fail to allay doubts

SPD gains fail to allay doubts
By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: November 2 2007 19:12 | Last updated: November 2 2007 19:12

Germany’s long-suffering Social Democrats may still be a long way from luring back their wayward voters but the party has taken a first step towards rebuilding its damaged credentials, according to pollsters.

Last weekend’s party conference earned Kurt Beck, the SPD chairman, mixed press reviews, largely because of his unfocused two-hour speech. Yet analysts agree that on balance, the conference – dominated by a shift to a more confidently leftwing message – was a success.

“Party conferences are designed for card-carrying members,” said Andrea Wolf of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen pollsters. “But they also have an impact on the broader electorate.” In this respect, Mr Beck managed to convey an impression of internal cohesion, she said, “which is an absolute prerequisite to winning elections”.

The SPD has been at the bottom of popularity league tables since it joined the Christian Democrat-led “grand coalition” of Angela Merkel, the chancellor.

Most polls give the SPD 25-30 per cent to the CDU’s solid 40 per cent. Mr Beck’s personal rating is less than half that of Ms Merkel and even SPD members think that if elected chancellor he would not do a better job than the CDU leader.

In an attempt to drag the party out of this hole, Mr Beck has adopted a more vigorously leftwing stance, calling for a reversal of the ambitious economic reforms introduced by Gerhard Schröder, the last SPD chancellor, and launching scathing attacks against the CDU.

Although pollsters insist it is too early to judge whether the leftwards shift is wooing back voters and members – both of whom have deserted the party in droves following Mr Schröder’s reforms – they note that the party is registering its first modest popularity gains in months.

A poll by Forsa research group, published this week, showed a modest rise in Mr Beck’s personal ratings and a stabilisation in the SPD’s popularity.

However, SPD reformists have expressed concern at his tone, questioning the economic wisdom of demolishing the last SPD-led government’s reforms. One SPD cabinet minister says Mr Beck is focusing too much on proposals popular among the grassroots, damaging the party’s wider appeal. The fear is that the SPD could undermine whatever economic competence voters see in it.

“The SPD is making the same old mistake it has always made, by confusing party delegates and voters,” says Manfred Güllner, head of the Forsa research group. “A party conference may help draw cheers from the delegates but ultimately it will scare away voters.

“The SPD has 11m voters behind it right now. But to win an election it needs at least 20m, which is what Schröder got in 1998,” he says. “Re-ideologisation is not the way to reach those extra 10m. It will scare them away.”

Others think Mr Beck has few short-term alternatives, cornered as his party is between the radical Left party – a one-year-old grouping that has thrived on the discontent caused by Mr Schröder’s reforms – and a CDU that has toned down its market-friendly discourse.

As Reinhard Schlinckert, director of the Dimap polling group, says: “Beck’s top priority should be to prevent the Left Party consolidating its niche left of the SPD. But this can only be phase one. Once he has the party behind him, he must broaden its appeal to the outside.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007