FT.com / Home UK / UK - Stoiber crisis threatens Merkel's coalition

FT.com / Home UK / UK - Stoiber crisis threatens Merkel's coalition

Edmund Stoiber, one of Germany's political heavyweights for more than a decade, appeared last night to be on the verge of ending his career as conservative Bavarian premier in a political crisis that could influence Angela Merkel's re-election chances as chancellor in 2009.

Mr Stoiber, faced with a rebellion within his usually ultra-loyal Christian Social Union, was expected soon to withdraw his bid to extend his 14 years in office at Ba-varian elections next year.

CSU state legislators, gathered at a party retreat in a former monastery south of Munich, were yesterday evening haggling with their leader over the timing of his departure, party officials said. Mr Stoiber said for the first time on Monday that he was considering retiring.

The political drama - sparked by gaffes by Mr Stoiber and frustration over his leadership style - could damage Ms Merkel if support for the CSU, already hit by the crisis, continues to fall.

Ms Merkel's conservative bloc relies on the CSU as a vote bank. The party regularly gains 60 per cent of votes in Bavaria, one of Germany's most populous states, compared with 30-40 per cent for the chancellor's Christian Democrats elsewhere in the country. CSU support was down to 45 per cent in surveys this week.

"Ms Merkel is politically dependent on the CSU," said Heinrich Oberreuter, CSU expert at Bavaria's Passau university.

The CSU also plays an important role in national politics. While operating only in Bavaria, its free market economic policies and strong social agenda, plus its appeal to rightwing voters, have influenced CDU-led governments and drawn support away from far-right parties.

Prolonged instability in Bavaria could destabiliseMs Merkel's grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and Social Democrats, already struggling to retain unity over controversial health and labour market reforms. SPD leaders attackedMr Stoiber this week in an apparent bid to gain political capital from the crisis.

The CDU called for a "quick resolution", and CSU insiders tipped Günther Beckstein, Bavaria's hardline interior minister, asMr Stoiber's likely successor.

CSU politicians acknowledged that Mr Stoiber, 65, had "lost touch" with voters, after he initially refused to meet a mid-ranking party official who had criticised him and later ignored the mood of the rank and file by saying he wanted to rule Bavaria until 2013.

In a dramatic fall in public support, 69 per cent of Bavarians believe Mr Stoiber should not stand forre-election next year, according to a poll this week.

In the 1990s, Mr Stoiber's populist arch-conservative views drew the nickname "Edmund Thatcher" in reference to the former UK prime minister but now his days are numbered, according to Jürgen Falter of Mainz university. "Despite his successes as Bavarian premier he has now lost his political instincts. His star is falling fast."

Mr Stoiber's likely demise is not all bad news for Ms Merkel. Her own standing within her CDU/CSU alliance would be strengthened by his early exit, given the strained relations between the two.

In 2002 Ms Merkel, then opposition chief and CDU leader, was pushed aside by Mr Stoiber in a battle to take on Gerhard Schröder in national elections. Mr Stoiber lost narrowly to the former chancellor. Then, in 2005, Mr Stoiber embarrassed the CDU/CSU by signalling keenness to become a national government minister, only to withdraw at the last minute. Since then he has repeatedly criticised aspects of Ms Merkel's reform plans.

CSU officials were yesterday shaking their heads over the crisis, wondering how this politically stable corner of Germany could find itself in such a mess.

Unemployment in Bavaria, at 5.9 per cent, is halfthe national average, while the region's economic growth between 2000 and 2005 of 9.3 per cent is three times the national rate.

Party insiders blamedMr Stoiber, pointing to his retreat from Berlin, his unpopular austerity measures in Bavaria since 2003 and his poor crisis management since Christmas.

In a sign yesterday that the CSU infighting was turning nasty, Bild newspaper reported that Horst Seehofer, the federal agriculture minister who is tipped as the next CSU leader, was having an extra-marital affair, which, if true, could damage his standing in strongly Catholic Bavaria. CSU leaders called for a quick return to "dignified politics".

Mr Stoiber came to power in 1993 amid a similar political crisis, also involving a sex scandal, surroundinga contender for the statepremiership.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007