The German consumer showed no sign of springing into life last month, despite the strong growth in Europe’s largest economy, official figures showed on Friday.
Retail sales in German were unchanged in August after a revised 0.8 per cent fall in the previous month, according to the Federal Statistics Office.
Sluggish consumer spending has long been the Achilles’ heel of Germany’s economy, dragging down the eurozone’s overall performance. But the latest figures surprised analysts who had expected a rise on the back of one of the strongest German growth performances for years in the first six months of 2006, powered by the country’s industrial sector.
They contrasted sharply with the picture in France, where consumers’ spending on manufactured goods leapt 3.3 per cent in August, according to figures released last week.
The poor summer weather in August, after an exceptionally hot July, had been expected to encourage more people into the shops. Germans were also expected to step up purchases to beat a three percentage point rise in VAT next January.
But economists stuck to the view that this year would bring some overall improvement. With energy prices falling and the VAT hike looming, “strong retail sales can be expected over the final months of this year, before January brings a serious slump,” said Ralph Solveen, economist at Commerzbank.
The German retail sales figures were among a raft of eurozone data released on Friday.
Eurozone inflation dropped more-than-expected in September to 1.8 per cent, showing the headline rate falling back within the European Central Bank’s target of “below but close” to 2 per cent for the first time since January 2005.
Howard Archer, Global Insight economist, said: “The marked falling back in eurozone consumer price inflation in September will not deter the European Central Bank from raising its key interest rate further. Significantly the latest comments from ECB officials remain hawkish, as they continue to stress that medium-term inflation risks persist and that the strength of the eurozone economy warrants a withdrawal of monetary accommodation”.
Other data showed business and consumer sentiment rose to 109.3, a five year high. Holger Schmieding of Bank of America, said the data were surprisingly good, especially the rise in business climate and the industrial confidence was very encouraging: “It does suggest that the eurozone’s economy will continue to expand at an above-trend pace at least until the end of this year. At the same time we see there is no inflation outside energy”.
Separately, France reported an unexpected rise in unemployment in August. The jobless rate rose to 9.0 per cent in August from 8.9 per cent in July.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Merkel verspricht Kassen mehr Steuergeld (FTD)
Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hat den gesetzlichen Krankenkassen für 2007 einen höheren Steuerzuschuss versprochen als bisher geplant. Sie stellte außerdem die in der Koalition verabredete Erhöhung des Rentenbeitrags in Frage, falls die Einnahmen der Rentenversicherer weiter steigen.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
„Zusatzprämie sozialisieren“ (Zeit online)
Die geplante Zusatzprämie in der Krankenversicherung muss aus Steuermitteln bezahlt werden, verlangt Ökonom Jürgen Wasem. Der derzeitige Streit über die Höhe sei sinnlos.
Von Cerstin Gammelin
Der Krach um die so genannte Überforderungsklausel blockiert gegenwärtig die Verhandlungen der Großen Koalition über die Gesundheitsreform. Konkret geht es dabei um die Höhe der Zusatzprämie, die die Versicherten künftig entrichten müssen, wenn ihre Kasse mit dem Geld, das sie aus dem neuen Gesundheitsfonds erhält, nicht auskommt. Die SPD will diesen Beitrag auf ein Prozent des Haushaltseinkommens begrenzen. Die Union lehnt das ab, da sie befürchtet, dass es auf diese Weise noch weniger Wettbewerb zwischen den Kassen geben könnte, als das schon heute der Fall ist.
Nun hat die SPD zwar die so genannten Eckpunkte auf ihrer Seite, denen die Union im Juli zugestimmt hat, und die eine entsprechende Begrenzung beinhalten. Doch das stört die Konservativen wenig. Sie wollen die Vereinbarung rückgängig machen. Mindestens zwei oder drei Prozent des Einkommens müssten die Kassen erheben dürfen, damit Wettbewerb entstehe, fordert zum Beispiel Thüringens Ministerpräsident Dieter Althaus.
Dem widerspricht der Essener Gesundheitsprofessor Jürgen Wasem, der Anfang des Jahres ein Fondsmodell mitentwickelt hat, jedoch in der Zwischenzeit skeptisch geworden ist. Entscheidend für den Erfolg der Zusatzprämie sei keinesfalls, auf welche Höhe man sich einigt, sagte Wasem ZEIT online. Entscheidend sei vielmehr, wer den Zusatzbeitrag bezahlen müsse.
Wenn dies – wie bisher geplant – die Versicherten seien, werde die Zusatzprämie zum Bankrott zahlreicher Kassen führen, befürchtet Wasem. Der zusätzliche Betrag werde eine Massenflucht der Gesunden und Gutverdiener in Gesellschaften ohne Kopfprämie auslösen, argumentiert der Wissenschaftler. Zurück in der defizitären Kasse blieben nur Alte, chronisch Kranke oder Arbeitslose – die Härtefälle eben. Der finanzielle Ruin der betroffenen Kassen sei die logische Folge. Diesen Effekt, wundert sich Wasem, müssten die Gesundheitsexperten beider Parteien kennen.
Qualitätswettbewerb zwischen Kassen, Ärzten und Kliniken könne die Zusatzprämie dagegen bewirken, wenn das zusätzlich benötigte Geld entweder aus dem Fonds selbst oder aus Steuermitteln fließe. „Die Subvention der Geringverdiener muss sozialisiert werden“, fordert Wasem.
Doch von einer so einschneidenden Änderung ihres bisherigen Konzept sind die Experten beider Seiten weit entfernt. Denn auch die Reform des Risikostrukturausgleiches, der eine Voraussetzung für die Einführung des Fonds darstellt, ist ebenfalls noch lange nicht unter Dach und Fach.
TEIL 2
Die Schwierigkeit besteht dabei darin, dass die Bundesländer unterschiedlich stark von einem vollständigen Finanzausgleich betroffen sind. Die zusätzliche Einführung des Ausgleichs von Krankheitsrisiken hätte im Vergleich zum heutigen Risikostrukturausgleich „gravierende Umverteilungseffekte“ zur Folge, schreibt Uwe Repschläger in einem internen Gutachten. Beispielsweise hätte das Bundesland Baden-Württemberg – das Land mit den höchsten Einkommen in Deutschland – bei einem vollständigen Finanzausgleich zwei Prozent weniger Geld für Krankenhäuser übrig.
Das Land müsste das Budget für Ärzte um sechs Prozent kürzen, insgesamt 13 Prozent der Grundlohnsumme der Versicherten in den bundesweiten Finanzausgleich zahlen und hätte 301 Euro je Versichertem und Jahr weniger zur Verfügung. Gewinner der geplanten Umstellung und der sich daraus ergebenden Vergütungen für niedergelassene Ärzte, Zahnärzte, Krankenhäuser und andere Leistungserbringer wären die Regionen im Osten sowie Hamburg und das Saarland.
Viel Zeit bleibt der Großen Koalition nicht mehr, um derlei Interessengegensätze aufzulösen. Schon am vierten Oktober wollen sich die Spitzenvertreter im Kanzleramt treffen, um die Konflikte beizulegen. Auch am heutigen Donnerstag tagt erneut eine Expertenrunde. Ob diese über den mittlerweile vorliegenden dritten Entwurf des Gesetzes abschließend beraten kann, ist aber noch unklar. Die Unionsbundesländer wollten nämlich eigene Formulierungshilfen vorlegen. Diese waren allerdings bis Mittwochabend noch nicht fertig.
Wie aus einem neuen Gesetzentwurf hervorgeht, könnte sich zudem die Verschiebung des Gesetzes negativ auf die Reform auswirken. Da das Gesetz wegen der Streitigkeiten erst zum 1. April 2007 und nicht wie ursprünglich geplant zum 1. Januar in Kraft treten wird, würden die Einsparungen durch die Reform um Hunderte Millionen geringer ausfallen, berichteten mehrere Zeitungen.
Statt 1,9 Milliarden Euro würden nur noch 1,3 Milliarden eingespart. Der Sprecher des Gesundheitsministeriums Klaus Vater sagte allerdings: »Darauf würde ich nicht wetten.« Die zuletzt positive Lohnentwicklung sowie weitere Zuweisungen verbesserten die Einnahmen der gesetzlichen Krankenkassen.
Zudem wirke das Arzneimittel-Spargesetz vom Frühjahr besser als geplant. Die Arzneimittelausgaben waren von Januar bis Juni im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum nur rund halb so stark gestiegen wie im ersten Quartal. Durch die Reformverschiebung gewönnen die Kassen auch mehr Zeit, die Reform vorzubereiten und so »die im vorgesehenen Gesetz liegenden Möglichkeiten der effizienten Verwendung von Beitragsmitteln durch neue Verträge von vornherein besser zu nutzen«, sagte Vater. Die Gesamtausgaben der Kassen liegen bei rund 145 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr.
© ZEIT online
Von Cerstin Gammelin
Der Krach um die so genannte Überforderungsklausel blockiert gegenwärtig die Verhandlungen der Großen Koalition über die Gesundheitsreform. Konkret geht es dabei um die Höhe der Zusatzprämie, die die Versicherten künftig entrichten müssen, wenn ihre Kasse mit dem Geld, das sie aus dem neuen Gesundheitsfonds erhält, nicht auskommt. Die SPD will diesen Beitrag auf ein Prozent des Haushaltseinkommens begrenzen. Die Union lehnt das ab, da sie befürchtet, dass es auf diese Weise noch weniger Wettbewerb zwischen den Kassen geben könnte, als das schon heute der Fall ist.
Nun hat die SPD zwar die so genannten Eckpunkte auf ihrer Seite, denen die Union im Juli zugestimmt hat, und die eine entsprechende Begrenzung beinhalten. Doch das stört die Konservativen wenig. Sie wollen die Vereinbarung rückgängig machen. Mindestens zwei oder drei Prozent des Einkommens müssten die Kassen erheben dürfen, damit Wettbewerb entstehe, fordert zum Beispiel Thüringens Ministerpräsident Dieter Althaus.
Dem widerspricht der Essener Gesundheitsprofessor Jürgen Wasem, der Anfang des Jahres ein Fondsmodell mitentwickelt hat, jedoch in der Zwischenzeit skeptisch geworden ist. Entscheidend für den Erfolg der Zusatzprämie sei keinesfalls, auf welche Höhe man sich einigt, sagte Wasem ZEIT online. Entscheidend sei vielmehr, wer den Zusatzbeitrag bezahlen müsse.
Wenn dies – wie bisher geplant – die Versicherten seien, werde die Zusatzprämie zum Bankrott zahlreicher Kassen führen, befürchtet Wasem. Der zusätzliche Betrag werde eine Massenflucht der Gesunden und Gutverdiener in Gesellschaften ohne Kopfprämie auslösen, argumentiert der Wissenschaftler. Zurück in der defizitären Kasse blieben nur Alte, chronisch Kranke oder Arbeitslose – die Härtefälle eben. Der finanzielle Ruin der betroffenen Kassen sei die logische Folge. Diesen Effekt, wundert sich Wasem, müssten die Gesundheitsexperten beider Parteien kennen.
Qualitätswettbewerb zwischen Kassen, Ärzten und Kliniken könne die Zusatzprämie dagegen bewirken, wenn das zusätzlich benötigte Geld entweder aus dem Fonds selbst oder aus Steuermitteln fließe. „Die Subvention der Geringverdiener muss sozialisiert werden“, fordert Wasem.
Doch von einer so einschneidenden Änderung ihres bisherigen Konzept sind die Experten beider Seiten weit entfernt. Denn auch die Reform des Risikostrukturausgleiches, der eine Voraussetzung für die Einführung des Fonds darstellt, ist ebenfalls noch lange nicht unter Dach und Fach.
TEIL 2
Die Schwierigkeit besteht dabei darin, dass die Bundesländer unterschiedlich stark von einem vollständigen Finanzausgleich betroffen sind. Die zusätzliche Einführung des Ausgleichs von Krankheitsrisiken hätte im Vergleich zum heutigen Risikostrukturausgleich „gravierende Umverteilungseffekte“ zur Folge, schreibt Uwe Repschläger in einem internen Gutachten. Beispielsweise hätte das Bundesland Baden-Württemberg – das Land mit den höchsten Einkommen in Deutschland – bei einem vollständigen Finanzausgleich zwei Prozent weniger Geld für Krankenhäuser übrig.
Das Land müsste das Budget für Ärzte um sechs Prozent kürzen, insgesamt 13 Prozent der Grundlohnsumme der Versicherten in den bundesweiten Finanzausgleich zahlen und hätte 301 Euro je Versichertem und Jahr weniger zur Verfügung. Gewinner der geplanten Umstellung und der sich daraus ergebenden Vergütungen für niedergelassene Ärzte, Zahnärzte, Krankenhäuser und andere Leistungserbringer wären die Regionen im Osten sowie Hamburg und das Saarland.
Viel Zeit bleibt der Großen Koalition nicht mehr, um derlei Interessengegensätze aufzulösen. Schon am vierten Oktober wollen sich die Spitzenvertreter im Kanzleramt treffen, um die Konflikte beizulegen. Auch am heutigen Donnerstag tagt erneut eine Expertenrunde. Ob diese über den mittlerweile vorliegenden dritten Entwurf des Gesetzes abschließend beraten kann, ist aber noch unklar. Die Unionsbundesländer wollten nämlich eigene Formulierungshilfen vorlegen. Diese waren allerdings bis Mittwochabend noch nicht fertig.
Wie aus einem neuen Gesetzentwurf hervorgeht, könnte sich zudem die Verschiebung des Gesetzes negativ auf die Reform auswirken. Da das Gesetz wegen der Streitigkeiten erst zum 1. April 2007 und nicht wie ursprünglich geplant zum 1. Januar in Kraft treten wird, würden die Einsparungen durch die Reform um Hunderte Millionen geringer ausfallen, berichteten mehrere Zeitungen.
Statt 1,9 Milliarden Euro würden nur noch 1,3 Milliarden eingespart. Der Sprecher des Gesundheitsministeriums Klaus Vater sagte allerdings: »Darauf würde ich nicht wetten.« Die zuletzt positive Lohnentwicklung sowie weitere Zuweisungen verbesserten die Einnahmen der gesetzlichen Krankenkassen.
Zudem wirke das Arzneimittel-Spargesetz vom Frühjahr besser als geplant. Die Arzneimittelausgaben waren von Januar bis Juni im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum nur rund halb so stark gestiegen wie im ersten Quartal. Durch die Reformverschiebung gewönnen die Kassen auch mehr Zeit, die Reform vorzubereiten und so »die im vorgesehenen Gesetz liegenden Möglichkeiten der effizienten Verwendung von Beitragsmitteln durch neue Verträge von vornherein besser zu nutzen«, sagte Vater. Die Gesamtausgaben der Kassen liegen bei rund 145 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr.
© ZEIT online
Merkel drückt sich um Machtwort (FTD)
Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hat die Forderung des Koalitionspartners SPD zurückgewiesen, den Streit um die Gesundheitspolitik mit einem Machtwort zu beenden. Machtworte oder Vertrauensfrage hätten ihrem Vorgänger Gerhard Schröder auch nicht wirklich weitergeholfen. Sie rate allen Beteiligten zu mehr Gelassenheit.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Confidence in Germany's economy hits turning point (FT)
German business confidence in current economic conditions has soared to a 15-year high but gloom about the next six months is rising, according to a closely watched survey.
The Munich-based Ifo's business climate indicator, which edged down slightly from 105.0 in August to 104.9 this month, provided further evidence that Europe's largest economy is reaching a turning point.
The Munich-based Ifo's business climate indicator, which edged down slightly from 105.0 in August to 104.9 this month, provided further evidence that Europe's largest economy is reaching a turning point.
Monday, September 25, 2006
German inflation falls as oil price tumbles (FT)
Tumbling oil prices on Monday led to a sharp drop in German inflation, boosting the chances of the eurozone rate falling later this week below the European Central Bank’s 2 per cent target for the first time in 20 months.
The steep fall in energy costs this month will cheer the ECB as it attempts to bring headline inflation back in line with its target of “below but close” to 2 per cent.
The steep fall in energy costs this month will cheer the ECB as it attempts to bring headline inflation back in line with its target of “below but close” to 2 per cent.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Poor but sexy (Economist.com)
Poor but sexy
Sep 21st 2006 BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
A fashionable Social Democratic fief needs a stronger economic revival
DOES politics matter in a city with unemployment of over 17% and a debt of €63 billion ($80 billion)? Klaus Wowereit, Berlin's Social Democratic mayor, jibs at the question. Naturally, he says, politics is not just about spending money—witness his pay cuts for civil servants. Now he has five more years in which to prove his point. In Germany's state elections on September 17th the Christian Democrats did badly, and the Social Democrats lost ground in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania (where the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party, or NPD, won a few seats in the state parliament). But Mr Wowereit did well in Berlin. He may now swap his coalition partner, the Left Party, for the Greens.
His big task is to help Berlin avoid the 1990s fate of Washington, DC: of being a bankrupt city with a rich political ghetto. After unification in 1990 Berliners hoped to regain their role of industrial hub and gateway to central Europe. Instead, the city lost two-thirds of its jobs in manufacturing, which now employs fewer than 100,000 in a population of 3.4m. Berlin resembles a glitzy shopping mall with lots of smart boutiques but no anchor tenant.
One reason is that “West Berlin was almost as socialist as East Berlin”, says Eric Schweitzer of the local chamber of commerce. During the cold war both halves of the city were heavily subsidised, but the money dried up after unification. The legacy was one of uncompetitive firms, a huge bureaucracy and an ingrained welfare mentality. Heavyweight firms that moved out after 1945, such as Siemens and Deutsche Bank, saw no reason to return. The results are visible as soon as one strays beyond the smart government district around the Brandenburg Gate or the posh neighbourhoods near Kurfürstendamm. Signs of poverty are everywhere. One-third of children in Berlin are poor.
Yet a new economy is gradually emerging. Hip Prenzlauer Berg is now home to a bevy of small fashion designers. The banks of the River Spree have become the base for Universal Music, MTV and other media firms. Farther south is Adlershof, a sprawling technology park. “Faster than any other large city in the world, Berlin needed to develop a new economic profile—and it is happening,” says Kurt Geppert of the German Institute for Economic Research, or DIW. Jobs in software, media and advertising are growing fast. Berlin now has a mix of technology, talent and tolerance that attracts skilled people and breeds growth. Spending on R&D is above average, thanks largely to the city's three universities, which also lure foreigners, artists, musicians and others.
Indeed, Berlin is now Europe's liveliest city after sunset. Since the glamour of the football World Cup final in July, barely a week has passed without a big event. Twenty-somethings jet in on low-cost airlines for the all-night club scene. There is a relaxed openness not found in straiter-laced European capitals. “It does not take much convincing to get good programmers to relocate here,” notes Ludwig von Reiche, a software manager who is chairman of the Berlin branch of the American Chamber of Commerce. Rents are cheap: a renovated four-bedroomed flat costs as much as a claustrophobic London studio.
All of which may make one wonder why Berlin is not booming already. One reason is a lack of entrepreneurial spirit, says Klaus Brake of the Berlin-based Centre for Metropolitan Studies. Almost half of Berliners live on benefits. Mechanisms for turning an idea into a product are underdeveloped; there is no private venture capital, and most firms are conservative. Despite Mr Wowereit's cuts, Berlin is still far from being an efficient state. The city has yet to sell its public-housing agencies. It boasts of offering a one-stop service for investors, but local municipalities have plenty of red tape of their own.
At the top, too, there is room for improvement. Mr Wowereit, who is openly gay, is a good face for Berlin; he calls it “poor but sexy”. But “Wowi”, as he is known, is a political operator, not a visionary. Berlin does not always do its best to attract skilled staff. Many foreign teachers, for instance, are denied equal pay, since their credentials are not accepted as of equal worth; this makes it far harder for bilingual schools to retain staff.
The challenge for Mr Wowereit is to balance the interests of Berlin's new elite with those of ordinary folk. It will not get any easier, since even Berlin's creative industries are unlikely to create enough jobs for the out-of-work. Despite Mr Wowereit's win, the election in Berlin was also a warning. Turnout hit a low of 58%, and as many as 13.7% voted for splinter parties (including a chunk for the NPD). Even in the capital, it seems, politics still matters.
Sep 21st 2006 BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
A fashionable Social Democratic fief needs a stronger economic revival
DOES politics matter in a city with unemployment of over 17% and a debt of €63 billion ($80 billion)? Klaus Wowereit, Berlin's Social Democratic mayor, jibs at the question. Naturally, he says, politics is not just about spending money—witness his pay cuts for civil servants. Now he has five more years in which to prove his point. In Germany's state elections on September 17th the Christian Democrats did badly, and the Social Democrats lost ground in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania (where the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party, or NPD, won a few seats in the state parliament). But Mr Wowereit did well in Berlin. He may now swap his coalition partner, the Left Party, for the Greens.
His big task is to help Berlin avoid the 1990s fate of Washington, DC: of being a bankrupt city with a rich political ghetto. After unification in 1990 Berliners hoped to regain their role of industrial hub and gateway to central Europe. Instead, the city lost two-thirds of its jobs in manufacturing, which now employs fewer than 100,000 in a population of 3.4m. Berlin resembles a glitzy shopping mall with lots of smart boutiques but no anchor tenant.
One reason is that “West Berlin was almost as socialist as East Berlin”, says Eric Schweitzer of the local chamber of commerce. During the cold war both halves of the city were heavily subsidised, but the money dried up after unification. The legacy was one of uncompetitive firms, a huge bureaucracy and an ingrained welfare mentality. Heavyweight firms that moved out after 1945, such as Siemens and Deutsche Bank, saw no reason to return. The results are visible as soon as one strays beyond the smart government district around the Brandenburg Gate or the posh neighbourhoods near Kurfürstendamm. Signs of poverty are everywhere. One-third of children in Berlin are poor.
Yet a new economy is gradually emerging. Hip Prenzlauer Berg is now home to a bevy of small fashion designers. The banks of the River Spree have become the base for Universal Music, MTV and other media firms. Farther south is Adlershof, a sprawling technology park. “Faster than any other large city in the world, Berlin needed to develop a new economic profile—and it is happening,” says Kurt Geppert of the German Institute for Economic Research, or DIW. Jobs in software, media and advertising are growing fast. Berlin now has a mix of technology, talent and tolerance that attracts skilled people and breeds growth. Spending on R&D is above average, thanks largely to the city's three universities, which also lure foreigners, artists, musicians and others.
Indeed, Berlin is now Europe's liveliest city after sunset. Since the glamour of the football World Cup final in July, barely a week has passed without a big event. Twenty-somethings jet in on low-cost airlines for the all-night club scene. There is a relaxed openness not found in straiter-laced European capitals. “It does not take much convincing to get good programmers to relocate here,” notes Ludwig von Reiche, a software manager who is chairman of the Berlin branch of the American Chamber of Commerce. Rents are cheap: a renovated four-bedroomed flat costs as much as a claustrophobic London studio.
All of which may make one wonder why Berlin is not booming already. One reason is a lack of entrepreneurial spirit, says Klaus Brake of the Berlin-based Centre for Metropolitan Studies. Almost half of Berliners live on benefits. Mechanisms for turning an idea into a product are underdeveloped; there is no private venture capital, and most firms are conservative. Despite Mr Wowereit's cuts, Berlin is still far from being an efficient state. The city has yet to sell its public-housing agencies. It boasts of offering a one-stop service for investors, but local municipalities have plenty of red tape of their own.
At the top, too, there is room for improvement. Mr Wowereit, who is openly gay, is a good face for Berlin; he calls it “poor but sexy”. But “Wowi”, as he is known, is a political operator, not a visionary. Berlin does not always do its best to attract skilled staff. Many foreign teachers, for instance, are denied equal pay, since their credentials are not accepted as of equal worth; this makes it far harder for bilingual schools to retain staff.
The challenge for Mr Wowereit is to balance the interests of Berlin's new elite with those of ordinary folk. It will not get any easier, since even Berlin's creative industries are unlikely to create enough jobs for the out-of-work. Despite Mr Wowereit's win, the election in Berlin was also a warning. Turnout hit a low of 58%, and as many as 13.7% voted for splinter parties (including a chunk for the NPD). Even in the capital, it seems, politics still matters.
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
German ZEW index falls again (FT)
Clouds on the eurozone’s economic horizon darkened further on Tuesday with German investor sentiment tumbling to the lowest level since January 1999, but the European Central Bank’s plans for interest rate rises are unlikely to be blown off course.
Truck makers prepare for sharp turn (FT)
Truck manufacturing is a notoriously cyclical business but as the next downturn approaches, companies are going out of their way to protect themselves in the bad times.
With some kind of downturn forecast for most of the world next year, executives from all companies are implementing strategies such as increased internationalisation and greater labour flexibility in order to stabilise earnings.
With some kind of downturn forecast for most of the world next year, executives from all companies are implementing strategies such as increased internationalisation and greater labour flexibility in order to stabilise earnings.
Germany shifts from Europe’s engine to brake (FT)
Germany will on Thursday put a roadblock in front of moves to bolster cross-border crime fighting and control economic migration in Europe, in the latest sign of Berlin’s increasingly awkward stance on the European stage.
Monday, September 18, 2006
Enscenering van dampende weelderigheid
(18 september 2006) Een paar geniale vondsten ten spijt, berust Tom Tykwers en Bernd Eichingers groots opgezette verfilming van 'Das Parfum' op een misverstand: Patrick Süskinds bestseller uit 1985 gaat niet over geuren.
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Ein blauer Brief für Angela Merkel (FAZ)
17. September 2006 Angela Merkel hat sich immunisiert. „Meine Gläubigkeit an Umfragen habe ich mir seit der letzten Bundestagswahl abgewöhnt“, sagt die Kanzlerin und ergänzt apodiktisch: „Zwischenbewertungen sind nicht entscheidend.“ Maßgebend ist für sie, „ob wir am Ende der Legislaturperiode eine überzeugende Bilanz vorlegen können“.17. September 2006 Angela Merkel hat sich immunisiert. „Meine Gläubigkeit an Umfragen habe ich mir seit der letzten Bundestagswahl abgewöhnt“, sagt die Kanzlerin und ergänzt apodiktisch: „Zwischenbewertungen sind nicht entscheidend.“ Maßgebend ist für sie, „ob wir am Ende der Legislaturperiode eine überzeugende Bilanz vorlegen können“.
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Merkel ponders Atlantic free trade zone (FT)
Spurred by concern about China's growing economic might, Germany is considering a plan for a free-trade zone between Europe and the US.
A senior aide to Angela Merkel said the chancellor was "interested" in promoting the idea as long as such a zone did not create "a fortress" but rather "a tool" to encourage free trade globally, "which she is persuaded is a condition of Germany's future prosperity".
Separately yesterday, the US, Canada and the European Union complained to the World Trade Organisation about China's tariffs on car parts, raising the prospect of Beijing facing its first WTO dispute. The three said they had lost patience with Beijing's refusal to open the $19bn (€15bn, £10bn) a year market.
News that the free trade zone, last pursued by Sir Leon Brittan, when European trade commissioner in 1998, is being debated in the German chancellery testifies to the rapprochement between Washington and Berlin since Ms Merkel's election last November.
This convergence of views was underlined this week when Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, was politely chided by Ms Merkel for China's poor human rights record and recent restrictions on foreign news agencies, during an official visit to Berlin.
As German perceptions of China have grown more American, Washington's approach has also shifted. Speaking before his first trip to Beijing, Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, this week outlined a more balanced policy mixing traditional US criticism with praise for China's reforms.
Ms Merkel's aide said it was "far too early" to tell whether the project of a transatlantic free-trade zone would be part of Germany's priorities when it assumes the six-month presidency of the European Union and chairs the G8 group of leading industrial nations from January.
"The west needs to pull together," Gabor Steingart said yesterday. His book, World-War for Prosperity, a warning about the dangers of globalisation published this week, is credited with influencing the debate in the German chancellery. "What Nato did for the west under the cold war, Tafta [Trans-atlantic free-trade area] can do in the current battle."
Additional reporting by Andrew Bounds in Brussels
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
A senior aide to Angela Merkel said the chancellor was "interested" in promoting the idea as long as such a zone did not create "a fortress" but rather "a tool" to encourage free trade globally, "which she is persuaded is a condition of Germany's future prosperity".
Separately yesterday, the US, Canada and the European Union complained to the World Trade Organisation about China's tariffs on car parts, raising the prospect of Beijing facing its first WTO dispute. The three said they had lost patience with Beijing's refusal to open the $19bn (€15bn, £10bn) a year market.
News that the free trade zone, last pursued by Sir Leon Brittan, when European trade commissioner in 1998, is being debated in the German chancellery testifies to the rapprochement between Washington and Berlin since Ms Merkel's election last November.
This convergence of views was underlined this week when Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, was politely chided by Ms Merkel for China's poor human rights record and recent restrictions on foreign news agencies, during an official visit to Berlin.
As German perceptions of China have grown more American, Washington's approach has also shifted. Speaking before his first trip to Beijing, Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, this week outlined a more balanced policy mixing traditional US criticism with praise for China's reforms.
Ms Merkel's aide said it was "far too early" to tell whether the project of a transatlantic free-trade zone would be part of Germany's priorities when it assumes the six-month presidency of the European Union and chairs the G8 group of leading industrial nations from January.
"The west needs to pull together," Gabor Steingart said yesterday. His book, World-War for Prosperity, a warning about the dangers of globalisation published this week, is credited with influencing the debate in the German chancellery. "What Nato did for the west under the cold war, Tafta [Trans-atlantic free-trade area] can do in the current battle."
Additional reporting by Andrew Bounds in Brussels
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Friday, September 15, 2006
Germany eyes free-trade zone to rival China (FT)
Spurred by concern about China’s growing economic might, Germany is considering a plan for a free-trade zone between Europe and the US.
A senior aide to Angela Merkel said the chancellor was “interested” in promoting the idea as long as such a zone did not create “a fortress” but rather “a tool” to encourage free trade globally, “which she is persuaded is a condition of Germany’s future prosperity”.
A senior aide to Angela Merkel said the chancellor was “interested” in promoting the idea as long as such a zone did not create “a fortress” but rather “a tool” to encourage free trade globally, “which she is persuaded is a condition of Germany’s future prosperity”.
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Germany rejects Barroso energy call (FT)
Germany has rejected suggestions by José Manuel Barroso for a fresh liberalisation of Europe's energy markets, accusing the European Commission president of shooting from the hip.
A Berlin official said the view of Angela Merkel, chancellor, was Mr Barroso's proposals were both fundamentally misguided and premature.
Germany's view on the Commission's efforts to prise open Europe's energy markets is important. It is not only Europe's biggest energy market and one of the countries identified by the EU executive as having failed to open up sufficiently, but it will also hold the union's rotating six-month presidency from January. Berlin wants to make energy one of its main priorities, with goals ranging from improving security of supply to raising consumption efficiency.
The German government's clear rejection of Mr Barroso's suggestions, which he made in an interview with the FT on Monday, bodes ill for the future co-operation between the Commission and the presidency and suggests liberalisation will rank low on Berlin's agenda.
The Berlin official said the European Commission president's proposal for new legislation next year to create a pan-European energy regulator or an umbrella body for national regulators was "an old one, and onewe have always rejected".
A spokesman for Mr Barroso said on Wednesday he was confident a consensus would emerge for a further opening of European energy markets. "The status quo is not sustainable," he said.
The German government recognises energy prices remain too opaque and shielded from market forces by the oligopolistic positions of big operators. The economics ministry threatened the country's main players with a regulatory crackdown after excessive price increases.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
A Berlin official said the view of Angela Merkel, chancellor, was Mr Barroso's proposals were both fundamentally misguided and premature.
Germany's view on the Commission's efforts to prise open Europe's energy markets is important. It is not only Europe's biggest energy market and one of the countries identified by the EU executive as having failed to open up sufficiently, but it will also hold the union's rotating six-month presidency from January. Berlin wants to make energy one of its main priorities, with goals ranging from improving security of supply to raising consumption efficiency.
The German government's clear rejection of Mr Barroso's suggestions, which he made in an interview with the FT on Monday, bodes ill for the future co-operation between the Commission and the presidency and suggests liberalisation will rank low on Berlin's agenda.
The Berlin official said the European Commission president's proposal for new legislation next year to create a pan-European energy regulator or an umbrella body for national regulators was "an old one, and onewe have always rejected".
A spokesman for Mr Barroso said on Wednesday he was confident a consensus would emerge for a further opening of European energy markets. "The status quo is not sustainable," he said.
The German government recognises energy prices remain too opaque and shielded from market forces by the oligopolistic positions of big operators. The economics ministry threatened the country's main players with a regulatory crackdown after excessive price increases.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Günter Grass liest aus „Beim Häuten der Zwiebel“ (FAZ)
05. September 2006
Dem Literatur-nobelpreisträger schlug viel Sympathie entgegen im Frankfurter Opernhaus, dessen Parkett und Ränge vollbesetzt waren. Auch als er für sein langen Schweigen über seine Zeit bei der Waffen-SS die nicht eben leicht verdauliche Erklärung parat hatte, ein Schriftsteller habe das gute Recht, so lange zu warten, bis eine Sache ausgereift sei, und müsse erst einmal eine Form finden, um gewisse Vorgänge zu artikulieren. Ebenfalls Applaus erhielt Günter Grass für seine mit Bestimmtheit vorgetragene Bekundung: „Ich kann garantieren: Ich lasse mir den Mund nicht verbieten.“
Dem Literatur-nobelpreisträger schlug viel Sympathie entgegen im Frankfurter Opernhaus, dessen Parkett und Ränge vollbesetzt waren. Auch als er für sein langen Schweigen über seine Zeit bei der Waffen-SS die nicht eben leicht verdauliche Erklärung parat hatte, ein Schriftsteller habe das gute Recht, so lange zu warten, bis eine Sache ausgereift sei, und müsse erst einmal eine Form finden, um gewisse Vorgänge zu artikulieren. Ebenfalls Applaus erhielt Günter Grass für seine mit Bestimmtheit vorgetragene Bekundung: „Ich kann garantieren: Ich lasse mir den Mund nicht verbieten.“
Auch wenn alle mitmachen - ich nicht (FAZ)
Die vielleicht aussagekräftigste Episode dieses an vielsagenden, denkwürdigen Episoden, Unterhaltungen und Ereignissen so reichen Buches liegt siebzig Jahre zurück. Anfang 1936 - der Verfasser ist gerade neun Jahre alt - belauschen sein Bruder Wolfgang und er eine seltene Auseinandersetzung zwischen den Eltern. Der Vater war bereits vor einiger Zeit vom Schuldienst suspendiert worden, selbst das Erteilen von Nachhilfestunden hatte man ihm untersagt: Unliebsame Kritiker erkannte das Regime sofort. Die Familie war in dieser Notlage enger zusammengerückt in der Wohnung in Berlin-Karlshorst, es gab kein Kindermädchen mehr, und zum Zeitpunkt des abendlichen Gesprächs war die Mutter im Begriff, die bereits mehrfach geflickten Sachen der Kinder erneut in Ordnung zu bringen.
Berlin poised to fall into lineon stability pact (FT)
After four years of breaching the European budget rules it invented, Germany has returned to the path of fiscal parsimony.
Peer Steinbrück, the fin-ance minister, said yesterday that the German budget deficit would fall to 2.8 per cent of gross domestic product this year, below the 3 per cent limit allowed by the European Union's stability pact.
The minister told parliament he was ready to notify the European Commission that Germany was abiding by the stability pact again. "I see [a debt-to-GDP ratio of] 2.8 per cent as realistic and that is what I will tell Brussels," he said.
Although widely expected, the deficit's return to within the crucial threshold comes a year ahead of the government's original plan, underlining the strength of the recovery that began in Europe's largest economy at the end of last year. The robust rebound has boosted tax receipts and should leave Germany's federal, regional and social security budgets with €15bn ($18bn, £10bn) more in revenues this year than envisaged.
"What we are seeing is the steadily rising profits of companies over the past five years finally spilling over into tax revenues," a government economist told the FT.
He said the government would "definitely" raise its economic growth forecast for this year, currently at 1.6 per cent, above the 2 per cent mark when it upgraded its estimates at the end of next month.
Yet he said several factors would weigh on Germany's performance next year, including high oil and raw material prices, higher interest rates, a 3 percentage point value-added tax rise in January, and rocketing unemployment insurance costs. "We are already seeing signs of vulnerability."
In his speech Mr Steinbrück also warned against "euphoria, complacency and covetousness", adding that the government would stick to its planned VAT increase despite criticism that the measure was both fiscally unnecessary and economically risky.
While the minister has refused to budge on the VAT front, he appeared to have backtracked on his equally controversial plan to reform Germany's burdensome corporate tax system.
People close to Michael Glos, the economics minister and an opponent of Mr Steinbrück's tax blueprint, told the FT that the finance minister had withdrawn his proposal to bar companies from deducting interest payments from taxable profits.
The proposed ban was partly aimed at offsetting the effect of a planned cut in corporate tax rates on the public coffers. While Mr Steinbrück's blueprint envisages a fall in the average nominal tax rate from 39 to 30 per cent, the government wants to keep the ensuing tax relief capped at €5bn per year.
At the same time the ban would have ended a legal form of tax evasion whereby companies draw loans from subsidiaries in low-tax countries and subtract the interest payments from their taxable profits.
The proposal, however, was opposed by business, the economics ministry and Angela Merkel, the chancellor, as a "levy on substance" that could force loss-making companies to pay taxes.
While she denied that the concept was off the table, an official close to Mr Steinbrück said the minister had agreed with senior coalition politicians last week to -consider two alternative -proposals.
These models, developed by the state governments of Bavaria, Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate, would limit the tax-deductibility of interest payments by stretching it over several years. The models would also apply only above a specific profit level, in effect exempting smaller companies.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Peer Steinbrück, the fin-ance minister, said yesterday that the German budget deficit would fall to 2.8 per cent of gross domestic product this year, below the 3 per cent limit allowed by the European Union's stability pact.
The minister told parliament he was ready to notify the European Commission that Germany was abiding by the stability pact again. "I see [a debt-to-GDP ratio of] 2.8 per cent as realistic and that is what I will tell Brussels," he said.
Although widely expected, the deficit's return to within the crucial threshold comes a year ahead of the government's original plan, underlining the strength of the recovery that began in Europe's largest economy at the end of last year. The robust rebound has boosted tax receipts and should leave Germany's federal, regional and social security budgets with €15bn ($18bn, £10bn) more in revenues this year than envisaged.
"What we are seeing is the steadily rising profits of companies over the past five years finally spilling over into tax revenues," a government economist told the FT.
He said the government would "definitely" raise its economic growth forecast for this year, currently at 1.6 per cent, above the 2 per cent mark when it upgraded its estimates at the end of next month.
Yet he said several factors would weigh on Germany's performance next year, including high oil and raw material prices, higher interest rates, a 3 percentage point value-added tax rise in January, and rocketing unemployment insurance costs. "We are already seeing signs of vulnerability."
In his speech Mr Steinbrück also warned against "euphoria, complacency and covetousness", adding that the government would stick to its planned VAT increase despite criticism that the measure was both fiscally unnecessary and economically risky.
While the minister has refused to budge on the VAT front, he appeared to have backtracked on his equally controversial plan to reform Germany's burdensome corporate tax system.
People close to Michael Glos, the economics minister and an opponent of Mr Steinbrück's tax blueprint, told the FT that the finance minister had withdrawn his proposal to bar companies from deducting interest payments from taxable profits.
The proposed ban was partly aimed at offsetting the effect of a planned cut in corporate tax rates on the public coffers. While Mr Steinbrück's blueprint envisages a fall in the average nominal tax rate from 39 to 30 per cent, the government wants to keep the ensuing tax relief capped at €5bn per year.
At the same time the ban would have ended a legal form of tax evasion whereby companies draw loans from subsidiaries in low-tax countries and subtract the interest payments from their taxable profits.
The proposal, however, was opposed by business, the economics ministry and Angela Merkel, the chancellor, as a "levy on substance" that could force loss-making companies to pay taxes.
While she denied that the concept was off the table, an official close to Mr Steinbrück said the minister had agreed with senior coalition politicians last week to -consider two alternative -proposals.
These models, developed by the state governments of Bavaria, Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate, would limit the tax-deductibility of interest payments by stretching it over several years. The models would also apply only above a specific profit level, in effect exempting smaller companies.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Managers will come to miss the voice of the proletariat (FT)
What about the workers? That is not a question you will see often in this or any other newspaper, nor hear in polite company. Perhaps today we can make an exception. Americans return to work this morning after Labor Day, while in the UK delegates are preparing to head to Brighton for next week's 138th Trades Union Congress.
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